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Top Commerecial print: Time to Prepare for Hyper-Inflation is BEFORE It E...

Top Commerecial print: Time to Prepare for Hyper-Inflation is BEFORE It E...: "Time to Prepare for Hyper-Inflation is BEFORE It EXPLODES Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 05/19/2011 13:39 -0400 Brazil Fail G..."

Time to Prepare for Hyper-Inflation is BEFORE It EXPLODES

Time to Prepare for Hyper-Inflation is BEFORE It EXPLODES
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 05/19/2011 13:39 -0400

Brazil Fail Germany Hyperinflation India Japan Monetary Policy Niall Ferguson Recession Reserve Currency Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Yuan



This is a continuation of a series of essays I wrote concerning the global shift away from the US Dollar as reserve currency. If you missed those essays, a brief recap of the items listed were:

1) China and Russia dropping the US Dollar for trade
2) China ramping up trade with Brazil
3) Saudi Arabia moving to strengthen trade with China and Russia
4) China, Russia, Brazil, India, and now South Africa are moving to trade more in their own currencies (not the US Dollar)
5) Singapore (major financial center in Asia) starting to trade yuan

All of these items are real and documented. And the pace of the move away from the Dollar as reserve currency is not slowing.

Indeed, it was just revealed that ASEAN+3 countries (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Japan, and South Korea) are researching the prospect of a “common currency” similar to the Euro.

The significance of this development cannot be overstated. The primary question those who do not believe the US Dollar could lose its reserve currency status ask is: what will be the replacement?

For certain there is no one currency that could fit the bill. The Chinese yuan could not do it as China is not ready and in fact ready to suffer a housing and banking collapse. Russia’s economy is a disaster aside from a few key areas (Moscow, St Petersburg, etc), the Euro in its current form won’t even exist in a few years, and Japan is both an ecological and financial disaster (they’ve just announced a 1 QUADRILLION stimulus plan.

Thus, the idea that any one of these currencies could replace the US Dollar as reserve currency of the world at this time is absurd.

However, a common currency comprised of most Asian countries (the primary creditor nations and manufacturing base of the world) is a completely different story.

Understand, I am aware that common currencies in general are flawed (especially when you’re uniting a bunch of bankrupt aging countries like Europe). However, a common currency comprised of Asian countries would overcome be a much more viable alternative to the US Dollar as reserve currency of the world.

The reason for this is that a common currency in Asia would get past the individual risks of any one Asian nation’s currency (Thailand and Japan in particular are a mess) at least in the beginning.

True, ultimately a common currency there would prove as futile as the Euro. However, it would serve as a “stepping stone” in the process of finding a replacement of the US Dollar as world reserve currency.

What I mean is that should a common currency be introduced in Asia, it would probably work for about 10-15 years. By then we’re well into the 2020s if not the 2030s at which point it is quite possible China will indeed be in a place to provide a world reserve currency on its own.

I wish to stress that even if Asia doesn’t implement a common currency and the US Dollar remains the world’s reserve currency (I put the odds of this at 20%), we are still facing a debt default in the US which will result in the US Dollar dropping dramatically in value and ushering in serious if not hyper-inflation.

Indeed, most commentators fail to understand the real reason Weimar Germany suffered hyperinflation. Niall Ferguson’s book, “The Ascent of Money” explains that it was in fact a political mistake that ushered in hyperinflation:

Yet it would be wrong to see the hyperinflation of 1923 as a simple consequence of the Versailles Treaty. That was how the Germans liked to see it, of course…All of this was to overlook the domestic political roots of the monetary crisis. The Weimar tax system was feeble, not least because the new regime lacked legitimacy among higher income groups who declined to pay the taxes imposed on them.

At the same time, public money was spent recklessly, particularly on generous wage settlements for public sector unions. The combination of insufficient taxation and excessive spending created enormous deficits in 1919 and 1920 (in excess of 10 per cent of net national product), before the victors had even presented their reparations bill… Moreover, those in charge of Weimar economic policy in the early 1920s felt they had little incentive to stabilize German fiscal and monetary policy, even when an opportunity presented itself in the middle of 1920.

A common calculation among Germany’s financial elites was that runaway currency depreciation would force the Allied powers into revision the reparations settlement, since the effect would be to cheapen German exports.

What the Germans overlooked was that the inflation induced boom of 1920-22, at a time when the US and UK economies were in the depths of a post-war recession, caused an even bigger surge in imports, thus negating the economic pressure they had hoped to exert. At the heart of the German hyperinflation was a miscalculation.

The similarities between the US today and Weimar pre-hyperinflation are striking. As in Weimar, US fiscal authorities are not taking any steps to rein in their loose money policies. Similarly, the US Fed, like Germany’s financial elites believes that currency depreciation is a good thing.

Thus we have a rather frightening set-up for hyperinflation in the US: the largest emerging market players are moving away from using the US Dollar at the same time that US monetary authorities are engaging in disastrous policies similar to those employed by the men who brought hyperinflation to Weimar Germany.

I firmly believe the US will see serious (‘70s style inflation) if not hyperinflation within the next 2-3 years. It could come sooner depending on how the Fed’s policies play out.

On that note, if you’ve yet to take steps to prepare your portfolio for the coming inflationary disaster, our FREE Special Report, The Inflationary Holocaust explains not only why inflation is here now, why the Fed is powerless to stop it, and three investments that absolutely EXPLODE as a result of this.

All in all its 14 pages contain a literal treasure trove of information on how to take steps to prepare AND profit from what’s to come. And it’s all 100% FREE.

To pick up your copy today, go to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.
The Effects of Hyper-Inflation on Accounting Ratios: Financing Corporate Growth in Industrial Economies (Technical Paper (International Finance Corporation), 3)Exchange, Prices, and Production in Hyper-inflation: Germany, 1920-19231922 GERMANY WEIMAR REPUBLIC LARGE 5000 MARK REICHSBANKNOTE (WEIMAR REPUBLIC)
Good Investing!

Top Commerecial print: Obama tells Israel to return to 1967 borders as he...

Top Commerecial print: Obama tells Israel to return to 1967 borders as he...: "Obama tells Israel to return to 1967 borders as he urges Middle East to seize 'moment of opportunity' in wake of Bin Laden's death By DAILY..."

Obama tells Israel to return to 1967 borders as he urges Middle East

Obama tells Israel to return to 1967 borders as he urges Middle East to seize 'moment of opportunity' in wake of Bin Laden's death
By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
Last updated at 7:51 PM on 19th May 2011
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Endorses 1967 borders for Israel-Palestine peace plan
Announces 'new chapter in American diplomacy'
$2bn aid to Egypt and Tunisia as incentive to protesters in other countries pushing for democracy
Defends sanctions against Syrian President Assad
Hailed uprisings sweeping Arab world as proof that policy of repression will no longer work as people seek to win their freedom and human rights
Warned that Al Qaeda's agenda of 'extremism' was now a 'dead end'
President Obama relaunched his vision for the Middle East this morning in a speech in which he said we are at a 'moment of opportunity' after a decade of division and tension.
He invoked the killing of Osama Bin Laden as a chance to recast relations with the Arab world and said the top U.S. priority was to promote democratic change across the region.
Speaking in Washington DC, Mr Obama said that the country's future is bound to that of the Middle East and North Africa, and said more leaders in that region may follow those who have stepped aside.
In the major speech on the region, he said that Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was a mass murderer, not a martyr, whose ideas were being rejected even before he was killed.

New vision: President Obama set out his approach to dealing with the Middle East in a speech on Thursday
In his first comprehensive response to the revolts through the Arab world, the President ratcheted up pressure on Syrian leader Bashar Assad, while promising U.S. aid to countries that support democracy.
He said for the first time that the Syrian President must stop a crackdown on protests and lead a democratic transition 'or get out of the way'.
He hailed popular unrest sweeping the Middle East as a 'historic opportunity'.
'The people have risen up to demand their basic human rights. Two leaders have stepped aside. More may follow,' Mr Obama told an audience of U.S. and foreign diplomats.
The speech in Washington is seen as an attempt to set out a coherent strategy for the area after criticism of the U.S. response to the problems in the region.

More...
'There is no organisation, the people are the ones driving the revolution!' Book charts tweets that sparked Egypt's uprising
He unveiled a $2 billion economic aid package for Egypt and Tunisia, which he intends to serve as an incentive for people in other countries pushing for democracy.
Mr Obama sharply defended new sanctions on Assad as the U.S. government toughens its approach to the repressive leader.
The President also laid out his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, in the speech, which comes before talks with Israel's prime minster.
In a move that is likely to infuriate Israel, he endorsed the Palestinians' demand for the borders to be based on those that existed before the 1967 Middle East war.

Moment of opportunity: Mr Obama relaunched his vision for the Middle East following the killing of Bin Laden
OBAMA ON...
Middle East uprisings
‘The people have risen up to demand their basic human rights. Two leaders have stepped aside. More may follow.’
‘The events of the past six months show us that strategies of repression and strategies of aversion will not work anymore.’
‘There are times in the course of history when the actions of ordinary citizens spark movements for change because they speak to a longing for freedom that has been building up for years.’
America's role
'We face an historic opportunity. We have embraced the chance to show that America values the dignity of the street vendor in Tunisia more than the raw power of the dictator. There must be no doubt that the United States of America welcomes change that advances self-determination and opportunity.'
Death of Bin Laden
‘We have dealt Al Qaeda a huge blow by killing its leader. Bin Laden was not a martyr, he was a mass murderer ... Bin Laden and his murderous vision won some adherents but even before his death Al Qaeda was losing its struggle for relevance.’
Libya
'Unfortunately, in too many countries, calls for change have been answered by violence. The most extreme example is Libya, where Moammar Gaddafi launched a war against his people, promising to hunt them down like rats.'
Syria
'The Syrian regime has chosen the path of murder and the mass arrests of its citizens... President Assad now has a choice: he can lead that transition, or get out of the way.'
Israel-Palestine conflict
'The United States believes that negotiations should result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. The borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognised borders are established for both states.'
The U.S. President hailed the killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden who he said had 'rejected democracy and individual rights for Muslims in favour of violent extremism - his agenda focused on what he could destroy not what he could build.'
'But even before his death, Al Qaeda was losing its struggle for relevance, as the overwhelming majority of people saw that the slaughter of innocents did not answer their cries for a better life.
'By the time we found Bin Laden, Al Qaeda's agenda had come to be seen by the vast majority of the region as a dead end, and the people of the Middle East and North Africa had taken their future into their own hands.'
The major speech on the Middle East was used by Mr Obama to look back and let him put his imprint on the massive change across the Middle East and North Africa over the last six months.
The President had been accused of being inconsistent, overcautious and slow to respond to the events in the Middle East, as he appeared torn between supporting demands for freedom and protecting the interests of the U.S. in the region.
In the core argument of his speech, Mr Obama argued that the U.S. must help nations modernise their economies and give job opportunities to their young people so that democracy can take hold and thrive.
He will said that this is the kind of regional stability is deeply in the political interests of his government.
The President plans to write off about $1 billion in debt owed by Egypt to free up money for job-creation efforts there.
He also revealed other steps to bolster loans, trade and international support in Egypt and in Tunisia, where uprisings led to dictators being overturned as protesters in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and other nations have endured brutal setbacks.
Mr Obama said that the uprisings sweeping the Arab world showed that a policy of repression will no longer work as people seek to win their freedom and human rights.
'The events of the past six months show us that strategies of repression and strategies of aversion will not work anymore,' Mr Obama said, as he denounced the 'relentless tyranny of governments that deny their citizens dignity'.
He described what he called a 'story of self-determination' which began six months ago in Tunisia, when a young vendor set himself on fire to protest the police confiscation of his cart.
'There are times in the course of history when the actions of ordinary citizens spark movements for change because they speak to a longing for freedom that has been building up for years,' Mr Obama said.

Incentives: The President announced a $2 billion aid package for Egypt and Tunisia following the uprisings, as an incentive to others seeking democracy

Punishment: The U.S. has announced sanctions against Syrian President Bassar Assad
Mr Obama recalibrated the U.S. position on the flailing Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
The President went further than he has in the past in laying out the parameters of an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, but stopped short of laying out a formal U.S. peace plan.
Mr Obama endorsed the Palestinians' demand for their future state to be based on the borders that existed before the 1967 Middle East war, in a move that will likely infuriate Israel. Israel says the borders of a Palestinian state have to be determined through negotiations.
The siding with the Palestinians' position came a day ahead of a visit to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is vehemently opposed to referring to the 1967 borders.
Until Thursday, the U.S. position had been that the Palestinian goal of a state based on the 1967 borders, with agreed land swaps, should be reconciled with Israel's desire for a secure Jewish state through negotiations.
But Mr Obama cautioned that the recent power-sharing agreement between the mainstream Palestinian faction led by Mahmoud Abbas and the radical Hamas movement that rules Gaza 'raises profound and legitimate' security questions for Israel.
Netanyahu has refused to deal with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas.
'How can one negotiate with a party that has shown itself unwilling to recognize your right to exist?' Mr Obama asked. 'In the weeks and months to come, Palestinian leaders will have to provide a credible answer to that question.'
He also rejected what he called an effort to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September.
'For the Palestinians, efforts to de-legitimise Israel will end in failure. Symbolic actions to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September won't create an independent state,' Mr Obama said.
He warned both sides that they face greater risks by not coming together on a peace deal than by going their own ways.
It is an effort in which he has sunk his own political capital and will spend more before his heavy week of Mideast diplomacy ends.

Talks: The speech comes before meetings with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Mr Obama tried to convince the American audience that the fate of countries in the region is worth the money and attention of the U.S. even during weak economic times at home.
To his global audience, Mr Obama wants to leave no doubt that the U.S. stands behind those seeking greater human rights even as it has had to defend its responses to crises.
The White House on Wednesday announced sanctions on Assad and six senior Syrian officials for human rights abuses over their crackdown on anti-government protests.
It was the first time the U.S. personally penalised the Syrian leader for the actions of his security forces. More than 850 people have died since the uprising began in March.
The President, in an executive order, said the Syrian government leaders were being held to account for ‘attacks on protesters, arrests and harassment of protesters and political activists, and repression of democratic change’.
The Obama administration had pinned hopes on Assad, seen until recent months as a pragmatist and potential reformer who could buck Iranian influence and help broker an eventual Arab peace deal with Israel.
But U.S. officials said Assad's increasingly ruthless crackdown left them little choice but to abandon the effort to woo Assad and to stop exempting him from the same sort of sanctions already applied to Libya's Moammar Gaddafi.
Obama has not called on Assad to step down, but his government came close on Wednesday.
‘It is up to Assad to lead a political transition or to leave’, the State Department said before the announcement of sanctions.
The sanctions will freeze any assets Assad and the six Syrian government officials have in U.S. jurisdiction and make it illegal for Americans to do business with them.
The U.S. had imposed similar sanctions on two of Assad's relatives and another top Syrian official last month but had thus far refrained from going after Assad himself.
The U.S. move came as Assad claimed the country's crisis is drawing to a close even as forces unleashed tank shells on opponents.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388729/Obama-resets-policy-Middle-East-speech-offering-punishment-praise.html#ixzz1MpNVLLYu

Top Commerecial print: Gap Cuts Full-Year Forecast by 22 Percent as Costs...

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